One of the key challenges we face as professionals working in retail and shopping centre design is predicting the new trends that will shape our industry. Anticipating these changes allows us to help our clients stay at the forefront of a highly competitive sector that rewards innovation and responsiveness to emerging trends.

People set the direction for retail – and that includes all of us, as we all contribute to its future through our consumption, attitudes and sensibilities.

Six years ago, I wrote the article Retail 2040, exploring the future of the sector. It was a pre-pandemic period, shaped by environmental concerns but marked by confidence in new technological solutions, the widespread digitalisation of human activities, and the positive side of globalisation as a force for commercial integration and expansion.

Today, the landscape has completely changed. The pandemic revealed an unexpected level of vulnerability, affecting us individually and as a society, and it has shifted our sensitivities as consumers. This sense of vulnerability has heightened our appreciation for physical health, self-care and diet. Enclosed spaces with large crowds now evoke a sense of unease that was once unimaginable, while open spaces are increasingly valued. In our pursuit of a higher quality of life, proximity has become more desirable, and long daily car commutes face greater scrutiny. There is a clear trend toward individualisation, personalisation and a focus on well-being across all aspects of life.

Climate change has brought more frequent and severe extreme weather events, heightening our sense of vulnerability and increasing environmental awareness among the public. However, compliance with global targets, such as those set by the 2030 Agenda, remains low, making it unlikely that we will keep temperature rises within acceptable limits by mid-century.

The digitalisation of human activities has reached a distinctly disruptive phase, with generative artificial intelligence now widely used across all sectors. This technology enhances data analysis, behavioural prediction and consumer influence, offering retailers valuable opportunities to strengthen e-commerce and multi-channel strategies. However, it also presents significant ethical and regulatory challenges.

Leveraging our extensive experience and close partnerships with key industry players, we anticipate that the retail landscape of 2040 will be shaped by the following seven key trends.

A clear shift towards the “outdoor” model will emerge across all areas, even in less favourable climates. This will lead to a greater proportion of investment being allocated to the public realm and landscaping, making it a key component of future budgets. Shopping centres in 2040 will be designed primarily as green spaces that serve the local neighbourhoods.

Image: Parc Vallés repositioning, Terrassa, Barcelona – Client: Frey – Completed 2024

With the rise of online sales, retail centres must attract visitors by offering a higher-quality experience, combining outdoor spaces, landscaping and diverse dining options, alongside thoughtfully designed interiors. The growing demand for healthier food will drive the rise of catering options focused on nutritious meals, replacing industrialised fast-food chains.

Image: Mall of Sfax, Sfax, Tunisia – Client: UTIC – Completed 2023

With improved outdoor areas and landscaping, entertainment offerings such as custom-designed playgrounds will expand, becoming key features of retail centres. These leisure facilities will be offered free of charge for the public to use, encouraging more families and groups to visit and spend time at retail centres.

Image: Parc Vallés repositioning, Terrassa, Barcelona – Client: Frey – Completed 2024

The success of online sales will make physical stores increasingly experiential, with interior designs inspired by the hospitality industry and the integration of technology in a showroom-style layout. The focus will shift towards communicating the brand’s values and boosting online sales, rather than simply accumulating stock to sell in-store.

Image: Parque Principado, Siero, Asturias | Client: ECE

Incentives for sustainable transportation will fuel urban regeneration, focusing on the enhancement of public transport networks. This shift will reduce car usage and parking in city centres, while decreasing demand for shopping centres located in suburban areas without surrounding residential communities. Investment that was once allocated to large underground car parks—potentially up to 50% of total investment—will instead be redirected to meet the growing costs of the public realm, landscaping and exterior urbanisation.

Image: Algarve Shopping, Albufeira, Portugal | Client: Frey

Repurposing a surface parking lot to create a playground.

The rise of commercial streets and neighbourhoods transformed into urban shopping hubs, with a unified commercial, logistical and marketing strategy managed collectively. This approach brings the expertise of the shopping centre industry to city centres, creating a more cohesive and efficient retail experience.

Image: La Farga, Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona | Client: Amalthea

Urban regeneration and the creation of new local hubs will mark the end of zoning, with mixed-use developments becoming the norm, where retail acts as the anchor.

Image: ID Mall, Hefei, China | Client: Citic Capital